report from mirror news,Experts used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict the disease could reach the UK by October 24
Britain has a 50% chance of imported the deadly Ebola virus within the next three weeks, scientists revealed today.
Experts used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict the disease has a 50/50 chance of reaching the UK by October 24.
It comes after the first man to be diagnosed in the US is now in a critical condition and fighting for his life.
"It’s really a lottery," said Derek Gatherer of Britain’s Lancaster University, an expert in viruses.
"If this thing continues to rage on in West Africa and indeed gets worse, as some people have predicted, then it’s only a matter of time before one of these cases ends up on a plane to Europe."
The deadly epidemic has killed more than 3,400 people since it began in West Africa in March and has now started to spread faster, infecting almost 7,200 people so far.
Nigeria, Senegal and now the United States have all seen people carrying the Ebola haemorrhagic fever virus, apparently unwittingly, arrive on their shores.
Worryingly for France, scientists said it has a 75 percent of importing the virus by October 24.
France is among countries most likely to be hit next because the worst affected countries - Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - include French speakers and have busy travel routes back, while Britain’s Heathrow airport is one of the world’s biggest travel hubs.
France and Britain have each treated one national who was brought home with the disease and then cured.
The scientists’ study suggests that more may bring it to Europe not knowing they are infected.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has not placed any restrictions on travel and has encouraged airlines to keep flying to the worst-hit countries. British Airways and Emirates airlines have suspended some flights
Patients are at their most contagious when Ebola is in its terminal stages, inducing both internal and external bleeding, and profuse vomiting and diarrhoea - all of which contain high concentrations of infectious virus.
But the disease can also have a long incubation period of up to 21 days, meaning that people can be unaware for weeks that they are infected, and not feel or display any symptoms.
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